The planned joint military exercise by Russia, China and Iran in Syria late this month or early next month is an emphatic message that Moscow and Beijing will not allow the US and allies to militarily intervene to end the worsening conflict pitting the Syrian regime against people demanding reforms.

Russia and China have been blocking the United Nations Security Council from applying any form of pressure on the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad.

The Russian and Chinese governments endorsed the initiative presented by UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan for a political solution to the crisis fully aware that the plan was not going to make any headway, given the determined positions of the two sides in the conflict.

US President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Mexico last week to discuss, among other things, how to deal with Syria, but they failed to agree on anything except that there should be an end to the 15-month-old bloodshed and that Annan should not give up his initiative although the special envoy himself has given up all hopes.

The joint military exercise could be expected to be a massive show of strength amid reports that Obama, facing the Russian and Chinese opposition to effective UN action against the Syrian regime, has drawn up a plan aimed at weakening the Syrian military and strengthening armed opposition to the rulers of Damascus.

While Russia and China cannot be expected to wage war to save the Assad regime, they could be sending a message through the military exercise that the US should not harbour any armed intervention in Syria.

If Obama accepts that warning and calls off the reported plan, it would mean that the Syrian regime’s forces could continue their bloodbath unhindered. Damascus would also gain more time to satisfy itself that the rebellion is contained. That is the opportunity that Moscow and Beijing are offering the Syrian regime.

Iran, which has not been making any secret of its total backing for the Assad regime, its strongest Arab ally, knows well that it would suffer a major body blow if there was to be a regime change in Damascus. As far as Tehran is concerned, the outcome of the Syrian conflict is as important to Iran as Syria itself.

What we know is that we are witnessing in Syria today is a big-power play, with memories of the Cold War being recalled. What we do not know is how far the key parties involved are ready to take their brinkmanship.