Turkey is not going to war with neighboring Syria over the shooting down of a Turkish warplane, its prime minister said Wednesday but analysts expect a higher risk of clashes on the border.
Days after the Phantom F-4 jet was brought down by Syrian defenses, leaving its two crew missing, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey has no hostile intent toward any country. “As Turkey, the Turkish nation, we have no intention of attacking” Syria, he said during a military ceremony in Ankara.
His declaration came a day after he branded Syria “a clear and imminent threat” and promised a harsher military response to any border violation.
Wednesday’s newspapers headlined Ankara’s hardening attitude, with the Milliyet daily saying, “Syria is now a de facto enemy.”
Analysts dismissed the prospects of a war but warned of escalating tensions on Turkey’s 910-km southern border with Syria.
“You can categorize a country as an enemy but this doesn’t mean that you are in a hot conflict with that country,” said political analyst Professor Sedat Laciner of the Ankara-based think tank USAK.
“Turkey has no intention of translating this tension into a war but it is apparent that the Turkish-Syrian border has turned into a frontier that may see stray attacks in the future,” he stressed.
In a much-awaited speech in Parliament Tuesday, Erdogan announced that that the rules of engagement of the Turkish armed forces had changed after what he said was a “hostile act” by Syria testing Turkey’s military capability. Any action by Syria posing a risk on the border will be “considered a threat and treated as a military target,” he said. “Tension is going to rise at the border,” said Hugh Pope of the International Crisis Group.
“But I don’t think Turkey wants to send troops into Syria. The only option for Turkey is to be part of an international initiative,” he noted. Meeting in Brussels Tuesday at Turkey’s request, NATO rallied behind Ankara, condemned Damascus for shooting down the Phantom, but made no mention of possible intervention.
Erdogan said Turkey would take the necessary steps in line with its rights under international law, remarks interpreted by observers as a threat of unilateral action independent of any decisions to be taken by NATO or the United Nations.
“It’s normal for Erdogan to deliver such a strong speech after such an incident,” said Didier Billion, Turkey specialist at the Paris-based International and Strategic Relations Institute (IRIS).
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