Russia will try to shield its ally Iran from the looming threat of military strikes while seeking an elusive commitment on its nuclear programme when it hosts showdown talks on the crisis next week.

“The Iranians are coming under a lot of pressure from Russia not to screw this up on their watch,” said one Western official familiar with the situation.

“Russia’s position will get firmer if Iran refuses to negotiate,” added Andrei Baklitsky of the PIR Centre for non-proliferation studies. “That would be a diplomatic slap in Russia’s face.” Analysts said the question of whether this happens depends mostly on the extent to which Iran feels it can still count on Russia once the full range of oil sanctions sets in.

“I generally avoid using the expression ‘last chance’ meeting, but the Moscow one may be turning into a showdown given the July 1 sanctions deadline,” said Bruno Tertrais of the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research.

The sceptics particularly cite this month’s failed meeting with the IAEA nuclear watchdog and the difficulty US President Barack Obama will have in making any concessions with elections approaching in November.

“Of course there is a certain time limit,” said a senior European diplomat.

“If there is a collective assessment that it is not going anywhere, we will have to say no to talks for talks’ sake.”

Russia’s Kommersant daily said the threat of the process falling apart forced Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to decide last weekend to pay a flash visit to Tehran on Wednesday for a meeting with chief negotiator Saeed Jalili.

A skilled balancing act would put a rare feather in Moscow’s diplomatic cap and support its arguments in an increasingly confrontational standoff with the West over Iran’s strife-torn partner Syria.

But failure may only further erode Russia’s slipping Middle East standing while creating even more uncertainties about how to address building concerns about the military aspects of Iran’s purportedly peaceful nuclear drive.

The stakes could thus hardly be higher when two days of talks between Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany begin Monday under the watchful eye of President Vladimir Putin — a strongman who expects results.