World powers resume crisis talks with Iran today amid hope that a crippling oil embargo and pressure from host Russia will finally force Tehran to scale back its nuclear drive.
The two-day meeting follows a bruising May session in Baghdad during which Iran nearly walked out of negotiations aimed ultimately at keeping it from joining the exclusive club of nations with an atomic bomb.
Russia however is keen to flex its diplomatic muscle and make Iran an example of how Moscow’s influence over Soviet-era partners could be used to avoid foreign military intervention in the 16-month crisis in Syria. “There are reasons to believe that the next step will be taken in Moscow,” Russia’s Deputy Foreign Sergei Ryabkov said.
Failure in Moscow could leave the process in tatters and raise the threat of air raids from arch-foe Israel—a fateful scenario in which broader conflict would lead to a spike in oil prices that could tip over the world’s teetering economy.
But a July 1 deadline for a full EU oil embargo and the June 28 rollout of tough US sanctions against a host of Iranian oil clients is providing added pressure for Tehran to bargain more seriously.
Two of the biggest bones of contention involve the speed with which world powers lift existing sanctions and the recognition of Iran’s “right to enrich” uranium.
The latter is emerging as a key demand that Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili is likely to present to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton when she represents the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany in Moscow.
“We expect that Iran’s right to nuclear technologies, including uranium enrichment, will be recognised and respected,” Jalili told Russia’s RT state-run world news channel in comments translated from Farsi.
Iran for its part “has the capacities to co-operate in disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation, so these capacities should be used by the international community”, Jalili said in Friday’s broadcast.
“I think that addressing these two issues will help to advance the negotiations.”
Diplomats said Iran had agreed to discuss the idea of limits to its enrichment programme under a proposal initially outlined in Baghdad.
“Their message on enrichment has been received,” said a Western diplomat close to the negotiations.
“I think that much will depend on how Iran reacts to our proposals as well. But we’re ready to discuss theirs,” the Western diplomat said.