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Scene set for a second rebellion   

Gulf Today - 19 June, 2012

The scene is set for a second revolution in Egypt, with the Muslim Brotherhood as well as its military-backed rival claiming victory in the country's first presidential elections following the toppling of long-time president Hosni Mubarak last year. What cannot be foreseen is how peaceful or violent it will be.

That the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) on Sunday introduced an interim constitution that gave the military the lion’s share of power over the new president could indicate that the Brotherhood’s claim is more substantial than that of the rival camp of Mubarak-era prime minister Ahmad Shafiq.

If Shafiq, a former air force commander like his old boss Mubarak, was seen as winning, then the military would have whipped up another version of an interim constitution that would have given him sweeping presidential powers as enshrined in the constitution that was suspended following last year’s revolt.

There is little doubt that the ruling generals have no intentions of giving up their absolute grip on power despite their pledge that they would hand over power to an elected president on July 1.

With parliament dissolved and martial law effectively in force, the military has made it the country’s legislature, gave itself control over the budget and will determine who writes the permanent constitution that will define the country’s future.

It seems that the generals have realised that they would be setting off an unprecedented wave of protests with unpredictable consequences if they manipulated the results of the presidential elections and declared Shafiq as the winner against Mohammed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Brotherhood has said that it did not recognise the dissolution of the post-revolt parliament, where it was the largest party followed by fellow Islamist Salafists. The Brotherhood has said it rejects the military’s interim constitution and its right to oversee the drafting of a new one.

What is emerging is a potentially violent struggle over spheres of authority between Egypt’s two strongest forces. The Brotherhood seeks to bring Egypt closer to a form of Islamic rule, but the ruling generals are in a position to block that.

Caught in between are the young revolutionaries, union members, liberals and students who led the anti-Mubarak revolt. Naturally, they will join an anti-military revolt despite their dislike of the Brotherhood and Salafists.

The formal results of the presidential election will be announced later this week. Whatever the outcome, one thing is clear: the generals have a contingency plan for any move by the Islamists and the revolutionaries of the country to challenge their grip on power. They will not be displaced except through a massive, determined and committed display of people’s power. The question is whether the Egyptians can unite themselves for the common cause for their democratic rights.
 
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Wed Jun 19, 2013| 10-شعبان-1434هـ
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