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Islamisation of Arab Spring?   

The Peninsula - 22 June, 2012
Author: Khalid Al Sayed

For Muslim Brother hood, its candidate Dr Mohammed Mursi is already president even as Egyptians and the world at large await the official results of the second round of presidential polls. The results may not be out today, according to the poll committee, while parliament remains dissolved after the Supreme Court found the parliamentary elections held earlier in breach of the constitution.

It’s no surprise Islamist parties like the Muslim Brotherhood are so confident. For they were the ones seen as a beacon of change and the only opposition during the corrupt previous regime and the ones who have leveraged that advantage of being the organised opposition in the aftermath of the Arab Spring uprisings.

The mosques have given the Brotherhood and other Islamist parties a platform to spread their ideology and influence among the general population that revere mosques as a holy and untouchable symbol. During the election campaign, Islamist groups took advantage of this and used the mosques to influence voters.

The Arab Spring which began over secular economic issues thus seems to go the Islamist way. Some prominent Islamic scholars have issued fatwas over who to support in the election, dictating what should be done and saying that those who do not follow them are “enemies of the revolution.” They are manipulating people’s opinion instead of letting them vote of their free will. What is happening in Egypt echoes what happened in Libya and Tunisia, when Islamic scholars issued Arab Spring fatwas.

If fatwas are issued to gain support for a candidate, then contenders from Islamist parties will have an unfair advantage over those from secular parties. Surprisingly, those Islamic scholars who are not in Egypt but still exercise some influence are prone to issue fatwas rather than let people decide who they want to vote for.

As Mursi steps into the presidency, which he in all likelihood will, he needs to focus on three things.

He should keep his promise of reaching out to other parties and form a coalition. The elections have shown that Brotherhood has not gained a majority. Hence, it should work with other parties if it wants the new government to be truly inclusive.

He must remember that although there was a large turnout in the run-off election, many voters either did not participate or deliberately spoiled their ballots as they did not like either candidate.

To succeed, he needs to concentrate on the economy. After the Arab Spring, the expectation of the Egyptian people are high. He should not forget that unemployment, inflation and poverty were the main drivers of the revolution.

Mursi should cooperate with the military council to avoid further dividing the country. Since a majority of voters are neither with Mursi nor with Ahmad Shafiq, they may even side with the military. We have seen that happen between Hamas and Fatah governments in Palestine as well as the clashes between Algerian Islamist groups and government forces in 1992.

However, the announcement by Egypt’s military council that it has amended the constitutional declaration limiting the powers of the president proves that the military is not yet willing to transfer the reins of the country. The formation of a national defence council, which though including the new president and the head of cabinet is dominated by senior military figures, is also an indication of the military’s unwillingness to turn over authority to a civilian government.

This presents a two-case scenario.

One, there will be more frequent protests like those that happened in Tahrir Square against the military’s moves. If the Muslim Brotherhood fails to keep its commitments, demonstrations will be held against it.

The other possibility is that since parliament has been dissolved, there can be elections for a new parliament. This can be an opportunity for liberals, secularists and pro-revolution elements to enter parliament. With the Muslim Brotherhood dominating the presidency, people might want a more liberal parliament to create a more balanced power-sharing arrangement.

Hopefully, having a president will have a stabilising effect on the country so that it can finally get down to work and tackle looming problems and move beyond the Mubarak legacy.
 
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